Donna,

Let me start by saying that the estimate of monetary goals that you are seeking
is not easy to get.  Now let me suggest a possible solution which might work
for you.

If you have access to the proposal and award data for your institution, you can
perform the following analysis:

Take a look at total dollar amount in all the proposals submitted in the
fiscal year or 1998-1999 (amount requested).  Then take of look total
dollars that your institution received as awards (awarded amount) for the
same time period of 1998-1999.  This will give you your success rate.
For example, if the amount requested in your proposals was 100 million
and amount awarded was 50 million, then you could say your success
rate is 50%.   You can do the same calculation for past few years
and study the trend (for example 10% increase every year).

Now if you have no major change in the environmental factor (for example
a well funded  PI leaving etc.), you may assume the proposal and award
activity to be in the vicinity of the trend that you observed.  From this you
can estimate what your requested amounts from proposals, and funded
amounts (from awards) will look like.

This part was easy.  However, I must point out one problem with this
analysis.  In any given fiscal year, your requested amounts and funded
amounts may not correspond to the same set of proposals.  In other
words, the awards received in the fiscal year 1998-1999 may not have
come from the proposals submitted in this fiscal year, as it takes few
months for the sponsor to make funding decision.  However, if you
assume "similar" proposal and award activities with some degree of
increase from one year to another, you will still end of a good estimate.

I hope this helps.

barbara bralver wrote:

> give them this years figures   apps and awards....that is really all you
> haveAt 10:21 23/08/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Our office (pre-award) was established to assist faculty and the academic
> >area with grant proposal development several years ago. Last Friday in a
> >meeting with my supervisor, I was asked to give an estimate of monetary
> >goals (awards to be made) for the 1999-2000 academic year. (We have never
> >been asked to provide this information before.) I would appreciate input as
> >to how to respond to this request. I explained that I would first have to
> >have input from the academic deans and department heads before I could
> >provide an estimate. However, even when I do get feedback from them, I'm
> >not sure how I would make a projection. Any advice you could give me would
> >be very much appreciated. My supervisor wants an answer from me post haste.
> >You can respond to me directly at xxxxxx@maristb.marist.edu
> >
> >Donna Berger
> >
> >
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--
Kumar Mukesh
Product Manager, Grants Proposal System
Public Sector Applications

Oracle Corporation
500 Oracle Parkway, M/S 3op1285
Redwood Shores, CA 94065

Phone: (650) 506-1501
Fax: (650) 506-7856

email: xxxxxx@us.oracle.com