Several years back, we developed a model to project indirect cost revenues.
The model is based on our portfolio of proposals rather than awards.  (UNH OSR
processes between 700-800 proposals per year).  By major sponsor type (federal,
state, private) we calculate average  hit/success rates over the past several
years.  We also calculate, again by major sponsor type, the average time-span
from proposal to award over the past three years.  We know from our proposal
records the indirect cost budget and the duration of each proposal (1 yr
proposal, 3-yr proposal, etc.).  By combining these terms in an equation, the
model projects indirect cost recovery for the next n months. We  run it monthly
and have it project recovery for the remainder of the fiscal year and for the
next 12-month period.  For local and historical reasons, the model projects
separately for our major research unit and for all other research.  The model
has had a *very* good track record for the latter set of proposals; the model
is newer and still being fine-tuned for the former subset (our major research
unit has a smaller base of proposals with a wider variability of type of
proposal than we see from the rest of the campus).

Ross, Stuart wrote:
>
> Has anyone figured out a good method or algorithm for forecasting and
> budgeting indirect cost revenues?
> We currently use a rough combination of extrapolating recent trends and
> estimating the likelihood of future awards, and we are often wrong.  Not
> disastrously wrong, but uncomfortably so, and we'd like to do better.
> As a relatively small office, we are relatively vulnerable to (a) the
> gains and losses of single large grants, as well as (b) the level of
> activity on campus and (c) the prevailing national grants climate.
> Any tips, advice, or full-blown solutions would be welcome.....
>
> Stuart A. Ross
> Cal State Fullerton
> xxxxxx@fullerton.edu

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Suzanne Huard
Mgr, Information Systems & Technology              Tel:   603-862-2005
Office of Sponsored Research                       Fax:   603-862-3564
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH  03824                      E-Mail:   xxxxxx@unh.edu
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