We assumed that real awards were the best predictors of future revenue so =
based our forcasts on that number .  We calculated real overhead revenue =
as a percentage of the value of awards for the prior year - and looked at =
these numbers for five years to see how that calculation tracked.  The =
individual numbers were within 3 percentage points of the average.  We =
have forcast overhead revenue as a percentage of awards using this  =
average for the past several years and it has kept  us out of trouble.=20

You have to pay attention to whether or not your federal funds vary widely =
since they have the highest rate. If your federal awards are a very large =
percentage of your total, this approach won't necessarily be useful, =
because you will know very early that revenue will decline when federal =
awards decline.  However, if federal funds are, say 25% to 60% of your =
awards, changes in federal awards will have more of an effect on your =
total revenues.  If you have one unit with most of the federal funding, =
you can break that out separately and do the same type of calculation and =
combine the results.  If you want to be compulsive, you can do the =
calculations for a number of units separately and see how they vary before =
you combine them. =20

If I can help by discussing this in more detail, give me a call.

___________________________

xxxxxx@mail.ucf.edu

Dr. Diane M. Jacobs
Vice President for Research and Graduate Studies
Univesity of Central Florida
407-823-5538

>>> "Ross, Stuart" <xxxxxx@EXCHANGE.FULLERTON.EDU> - 3/20/98 5:49 PM >>>
Has anyone figured out a good method or algorithm for forecasting and
budgeting indirect cost revenues?
We currently use a rough combination of extrapolating recent trends and
estimating the likelihood of future awards, and we are often wrong.  Not
disastrously wrong, but uncomfortably so, and we'd like to do better.
As a relatively small office, we are relatively vulnerable to (a) the
gains and losses of single large grants, as well as (b) the level of
activity on campus and (c) the prevailing national grants climate.
Any tips, advice, or full-blown solutions would be welcome.....

Stuart A. Ross
Cal State Fullerton
xxxxxx@fullerton.edu