Has anyone figured out a good method or algorithm for forecasting and
budgeting indirect cost revenues?
We currently use a rough combination of extrapolating recent trends and
estimating the likelihood of future awards, and we are often wrong.  Not
disastrously wrong, but uncomfortably so, and we'd like to do better.
As a relatively small office, we are relatively vulnerable to (a) the
gains and losses of single large grants, as well as (b) the level of
activity on campus and (c) the prevailing national grants climate.
Any tips, advice, or full-blown solutions would be welcome.....

Stuart A. Ross
Cal State Fullerton
xxxxxx@fullerton.edu